By: Vanessa Demske
By this point, even the gambler with the deepest pockets should know that predicting baseball is more often than not, futile. Game 162 proved that at times, the bigger they are the harder they fall (to the tune of a resounding You’re Fired! from the Boston front office), and that announcers should think twice before thanking the production crew for a season well done with two outs and a 2-2 count in the bottom of the ninth.
There are many schools of thought on the best ways to predict the outcome of a baseball series. Turn to season stats, matchups and trends? Or believe in the almighty Mystique and Aura (whom Curt Schilling claimed to have spotted twirling on the poles at a Bronx nightclub?) The basis of my picks? A little bit Peter Brand and a little bit riding the hot hand.
Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
At times this season, it seemed the Rangers’ staff was a rotation of two: CJ Wilson, and Everyone Else. Since mid-July, Derek Holland, Colby Lewis, and Matt Harrison have proven viable playoff options, and Alexi Ogando’s move to the ‘pen gives Texas another late-inning fireballer. The Rangers lineup is young and righty-heavy, the perfect counter to Tampa’s left-handed power arms. However, I foresee a long series, and an eventual Rays win in dramatic fashion. Joe Maddon’s Moneyball Nouveau bunch of scrappy winners is fired up after their walk-off ticket to the postseason. Assuming he locates, the advantage often goes to the pitcher facing a lineup for the first time, and the prospect of young Matt Moore starting Game 1 (and potentially appearing in relief) should have the Rangers shaking in their athletic supporters.
My Pick: Rays in five.
Baseball is not, and has never been a prizefight, and Verlander vs. Sabathia is no different. The true Friday night matchup features the probable Cy Young (and possible MVP) winner vs. the greatest one-through-nine in the game, and the Cy Runner-Up against a lineup that pales severely in comparison. Advantage: the big lefty from the Bronx. Post-CC, the Yankees have trimmed the fat (literally, in the case of slumping Bartolo Colón), and all of a sudden Ivan Nova and Freddy García (.266 BAA despite lacking a Major League fastball) have emerged as Games 2 and 3’s starters. On the Detroit side, Doug Fister’s second-half numbers have been greatly aided by the abysmal offenses he faced, and “Mad Eye Max” Scherzer is in for a rude awakening when the patient Yankees refuse to offer at pitches outside the zone.
My Pick: Yankees in four.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals
To paraphrase the genie from Disney’s Aladdin, You want it? You’ve got it! And everything that goes with it! As a sweet reward for their end-of-season surge, the Cards have drawn the team with the best record in baseball for the short series. Simply put, the Phils’ tres aces Halladay, Lee, and Hamels don’t lose. And in the rare event of a falter, they’ve got a lefty-laden lineup to run out against a heavily right-handed St. Louis staff, and a wunderkind backwards-K machine in the ‘pen who calls himself Vanimal. The underdog Redbirds could be competitive against Milwaukee or Arizona, but have an impossibly tall order in the Phightin’s.
My Pick: Phillies in three.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers
In comparison to the other NLDS series, this is a fairly even matchup. Winning begins with starting pitching, and Kennedy and Hudson edge Gallardo and Greinke by a splinter. On the whole, the Brew Crew’s rotation is stacked with solid veterans, and while the D’Backs counter with youth and unorthodoxy, even Josh Collmenter is not the silver bullet to push the Snakes over the top (pun absolutely intended.) The Brewers starting nine, which includes MVP candidates Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder and a power-hitting supporting cast of Rickie Weeks and Corey Hart, is a force to be reckoned with. While Justin and BJ’s extended families are surely rooting for an All-Upton World Series, Milwaukee stands firmly in the way.
My Pick: Brewers in four.
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