2011-12 Picks - NFL - NFC & AFC Championship Picks

It's proving time. 

Whether you're the #1 ranked defense or #31; Whether you can put up 40 points in a game or not; you better bring your "A" game. Today's games are for a trip to Indianapolis. 

Make it count.

Saturday, January 22 
Baltimore @ New England | 2:00 pm CT 

We're here again. Tom Brady is one win away from playing in his 5th Superbowl. But let's not get ahead of ourselves.  Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs and Ed Reed will have their say before it's all said and done. Whether it'll be more of a whisper than a lion's roar, well that's yet to be seen. I'm not saying it'll be a blowout, but I fully expect the Patriots to come out guns blazing. Gronk, Welker, Branch, etc...(And I had a vision that Ochocinco makes a big catch--prop bet?)

Note: How much do you think journalists actually influence the psyche of athletes before game day? Whether it's quite a lot or not at all, Skip Bayless likely motivated Terrell Suggs when he interviewed him on ESPN 1st Take.

My Pick: New England Patriots

New York @ San Francisco | 5:30 pm CT 
When I think of Mark Jackson, the former ESPN analyst/commentator turned Golden State Warriors head coach, I always think of his tag line, "mama there goes that man". When I see Eli Manning in a meaningful game, "mama there goes that man", comes to mind.

The guy always comes up big--he just does.

I can't say that I'm still not "sold" on the 49ers after last week, but I've never truly put any confidence in picking them to win anything this year. That said, "mama here comes that man".

My Pick: New York Giants


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2011-12 Picks - NFL - Divisional Playoffs Picks

Last weekend had to be one of the most improbable in recent memory. It was the only incorrect pick I had last weekend. I can recall the Giants beating the Patriots in ’07, the Saints losing to the Seahawks last year and well, then there’s this: Tim Tebow and the Denver Broncos who backed into the playoffs after an amazing run followed by a 3-game losing streak beat the veteran Pittsburgh Steelers on WildCard Weekend. That’s football, baby. I’m writing this on the train in anticipation on what may be one of the better sports weekends in NFL playoff history. Are you ready?

Saturday, January 14 
New Orleans @ San Francisco | 3:30 pm CT 
The Saints are away from the Thunderdome this Saturday. That usually spells doom for this arena-football like, super-charged offense lead by Drew Breesus. They’re facing the number one defense in the NFL and a team who loves to control the clock. Now, as a rule, under these circumstances, I’d go with the home team—but it feels a little bit too much like 2009 for the Saints. Not to mention I haven’t really been sold on the 49ers all year.

My Pick: New Orleans Saints

Denver @ New England | 7:00 pm CT 
Everything about this game says to go with my gut. The season that Tebow and the Broncos have had, the bigger storylines it’s provoked (this will turn into at least an ESPN Documentary if the Broncos see it all the way through to the Superbowl), and more. Not to mention the Patriots re-hiring Josh McDaniels to place them firmly in the “bad guy” role for this motion picture. I love Tim Tebow. I was one of his biggest supporters even before he started a game this season. But this is Tom “The Golden Boy” Brady and Bill “The Mastermind” Belichick in Foxboro. This is their chance (maybe one of their last) at redemption. So I’m going to pick with my head over my divided heart on this one and stick with my pre-season Superbowl pick.

My Pick: New England Patriots

Sunday, January 15 
Houston @ Baltimore | 12 pm CT 
This game could be surprisingly close considering how impressive the Texans defense has been. It’s crazy to think of how good this team is when they’ve been hampered all year by injury. From a matchup standpoint, Ray Rice and Arian Foster just might neutralize each other with the rushing attack they bring to the table. This game for most people will come down to who makes the fewest mistakes. I think it’ll come down to which QB makes the most plays. Yates, still, is a third string QB. Flacco is highly underrated (although I guess deservingly since he’s underperformed in big moments) but I think this Ravens team has a little Dallas Mavericks in them—and maybe Flacco has a little Dirk Nowitzki.

My Pick: Baltimore Ravens

New York @ Green Bay | 3:30 pm CT
For the optimist, the Game of the Weekend is the Broncos versus the Patriots. For the “realist”, it’s the Giants versus the Packers. The Giants are the Packers of last year; inconsistent throughout, but they find their stride at just the right time. The Packers, even with their high-powered offense, look slightly vulnerable. If the Giants front four can get pressure on the Packers, this game might be just what everyone’s looking for. But since I think this will be a close one, I’m going with my gut (unlike in the DEN @ NE game) and going with Eli and co. I don’t like to admit it sometimes, but he’s going to be one of the greatest ever—and his launch platform was in the 2007 Superbowl.

My Pick: New York Giants


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2011-12 Picks - NFL - Wild Card Weekend Picks

The NFL playoffs have arrived. We survived a lockout, went an entire season without Brett Favre and witnessed Tebowmania. And now this...

Saturday, January 7 
Cincinnati @ Houston | 3:30 pm CT 
I can't say I lost any sleep over this game, especially considering it would normally be the toss up of the week. I want to pick Houston, but Yates worries me; but he has his security blanket back in Andre Johnson. I want to pick the Bengals, but, it's the Bengals. However, they're a bit of a different team with the Dalton-Green combo. The deciding factor for me in this game is going to be Arian Foster and Ben Tate at running back. I think they control enough clock and keep Yates out of enough bad situations to get the win. Not to mention this being the first playoff game in Texans history.

My Pick: Houston Texans

Detroit @ New Orleans | 7:00 pm CT 
Ndamukong Suh is a beast. There's no denying that. However, although Matt Stafford is a pro-bowl caliber QB, and Megatron will likely tear up the Saints secondary, it's tough for me to bet against Breesus.

My Pick: New Orleans Saints

Sunday, January 8 
Atlanta @ New York | 12 pm CT 
The Falcons are one of sleeper teams that I felt could win it all the way they played down the stretch. Julio Jones and Matty Ice have developed a nice rapport. The Falcons have reestablished their commitment to the run with Michael Turner, which bodes well for them. However, I picked against Eli Manning last week and I learned my lesson. There aren't too many people I'll pick against Eli in a big game. Combine that with with the fact that Atlanta is a very different team when they're not in a dome.

My Pick: New York Giants


Pittsburgh @ Denver | 3:30 pm CT
I so want to pick Tim Tebow and my Broncos for wildcard weekend, but to put it simply, the Steelers are just a better team. That's really what it's all about. However, when it comes to the unexpected, I can honestly say I wouldn't be surprised if they pulled off the most improbable upset of the post-season. I might be obligated to pick the Broncos to win the whole damn thing if he's able to pull this one off. (Update: Unless they play the Patriots of course)

My Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers

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2011-12 Picks - NFL Regular Season Wrap-Up

And so 256 games later, here we are at the end of the 2011-12 NFL Season. Let's check out some stats and see how we did.

Final Regular Season Record

The Sporacle | 166 - 90 (.648 win %)

The Experts | 1636 - 905 (.643 win %)

When you average the totals of all the experts picks and compare them to the Sporacle, they're virtually identical--although if it were a competition, I'd be the winner.

Individual Breakdown 

Accuscore	174 - 82   |  0.679*
Pick'em	172 - 84   |  0.671
Schlereth	167 - 89   |  0.652
Wickersham	167 - 89   |  0.652
Allen	165 - 89   |  0.649
The Sporacle	166 - 90   |  0.648
Jaworski	155 - 85   |  0.645
Hoge	162 - 93   |  0.635
Golic	161 - 95   |  0.628
Schefter	158 - 98   |  0.617
Mortensen	155 - 101 |  0.605**

In the individual breakdown, The Sporacle finishes right in the middle. Interestingly, Accuscore, ESPN's simulator/my new favorite way to make parlay bets finished first in the standings. Not too far in front of the Pig Skin Pick 'Em leader and ESPN's Mark Schlereth.

*Accuscore is an ESPN simulator that predicts NFL games

**Did not pick MNF Games

The Sporacle - Year over Year Comparison

2010-11 Regular Season Record - 158 - 98 (.617 win %)
2011-12 Regular Season Record - 166 - 90 (.648 win %)

As always, progress is always the goal. I like to say you should always leave everywhere you go better than when you came. Well, an 8-game year over year improvement sounds like an accomplishment.

Looking forward to the playoffs kicking off on Saturday.

Thanks for reading and following along all season.

The Sporacle versus "The Experts" in Week 17

Well, Tebow and the Broncos stumbled yet again -- but the Broncos made the playoffs nonetheless.

The Cowboys couldn't manage a playoff birth which should leave a ton of questions in big D. Most notably, should Jerry Jones step down as GM?

At least there were no surprises in New York. Rex Ryan and his Jets didn't meet their own expectations.

And although I can't say I called it, no surprises with Eli and the Giants coming up big in a big game. They're a dangerous playoff team.

Weekly Wrap-Up
Finished the season off with another "W" versus the experts.

The Sporacle's Picks in Week 17 | 11-5 (.687)
The Experts average in Week 17 | 97-63 (.606)

Look out for a weekly wrap-up next week!

Thanks for reading.