NBA Playoffs | Western Conf | Conf-Finals | (1) Miami vs (3) Indiana

This series may seem underwhelming with the Pacers being what we recognize as a “small-market” team. But three of the four remaining contenders meet that criterion. For most, it’s still a foregone conclusion that Miami has this series in the bag. Last year, they were able to handle Indiana without Chris Bosh most of the way. Not to mention the Pacers are without Danny Granger. But I have an inkling that the Pacers may have something more to say about that.

Keys to Victory – Battle of the Boards
Miami’s biggest weakness is their vulnerability down low. Indiana is the best in the league at getting second chance points. They love to crash the boards and pound the ball down low with West and Hibbert. They’ll need to dominate (not just win) the battle on the glass.

X-Factor – Paul George
I don’t mean to put the entire series on one guy, especially considering how team oriented the Pacers are -- but George will need to transform from All-Star to superstar to give the Pacers a real shot at dethroning Miami this year.

Prediction – Miami in 6
I don’t think this series will be anything but amazing. The Pacers won the season series and that’s probably in the back of Miami’s mind. The Pacers are hungry, scrappy and tough. However, the Heat are hungrier, more skilled and well, just better.

NBA Playoffs | Western Conf | Conf-Finals | (2) San Antonio vs (5) Memphis

<basketballschedule.net >

The Spurs finished off a tired, yet resilient Golden State Warrior team in 6 games. The contest seems to have been just the shock they needed to wake them up after their walk-through of a series versus the Lakers. Memphis on the other hand has scratched and clawed their way to a place I can’t imagine too many people predicted they might be – except perhaps newly minted VP of Basketball Operations, John Hollinger. The Grizz are rugged, whereas the Spurs have been much more graceful in their approach. Which team will be able to impose their will?

Keys to Victory – Defending the 3-pt Line
The Grizzlies have been pretty superb at defending everything thus far in the playoffs. However, the types of teams they’ve been defending in the first two rounds are most dangerous with ball-in-hand. The Spurs are most dangerous when the ball never touches the ground -- and they’ve been hot from 3 for a while. The Grizz will need to cool them off to come away on top.

X-Factor – Mike Conley
The Big-3 for San Antonio has been Ginobili, Parker and Duncan for quite some time. It’s a tried and true formula. We know what to expect. The Grizzlies have had their big-2 truly clicking throughout this playoff run – Z-Bo and Marc Gasol. If Conley can elevate his game like he did (and beyond) against the Westbrookless-Thunder, I think I’d give them a good shot.

Prediction – San Antonio in 7
As I stated up front, the Grizzlies are going to fight. It’s what they do. My big question-mark for them is whether or not they’ll be able to score enough points to keep pace with San Antonio. The experience of Pop. The savvy of Manu. The speed of Parker. And the Tim Duncan-ness of Tim Duncan. Seems too big of an ask for the Grizz in my humble opinion.

NBA Playoffs | Western Conf | Semi-Finals | (2) San Antonio vs (6) Golden State

Image Credit: <sports.yahoo.com>

Round one for the Spurs was almost like a warm up. The Lakers didn't test their will or push them to their limit. Fortunately, the Spurs are full of veteran leadership that's been there before. With Greg Popovich at the helm, coasting through round one isn't such a bad thing.

On the other hand, the Warriors were battle tested against a Nuggets team with a chip on their shoulder. They battled through injuries to their two stars Stephen Curry and David Lee and came out stronger on the other end. I can't emphasis enough how instrumental Mark Jackson has been in leading one of the youngest teams in the league through the playoffs.

This isn't necessarily a match up of age and experience versus youth and immaturity, but it might feel like it for Game 1 in San Antonio. The lights get brighter in round 2.

Keys to Victory – Health
Tony Parker is getting his step back after suffering an ankle injury late in the season. Duncan and Ginobili are well rested. Thiago Splitter should return for game 1. For the Warriors, David Lee is likely out for the remainder of the series. Stephen Curry and Andrew Bogut are hobbled. As the playoffs goes on, the key players spend more time on the floor. The team that’s able to do that in this series should have quite the advantage.

X-Factor – Steph Curry’s Ankle
Of the four remaining playoffs series, this has been the toughest to pick. That’s because of Stephen Curry. When healthy, he’s as dangerous an offensive threat as there is. He commands extra attention. It doesn’t benefit you to go under or over the pick and roll game the Warriors are capable of playing. And he needs to be watched like a hawk off the ball. But when Steph isn’t 100%, he’s defendable. We aren’t exactly sure what he is right now.

Prediction – San Antonio in 6
This feels a little bit like a different Spurs team than the ones in previous years. They’re a different team than the one that lost to OKC after leading 2-0 or in the first round to the Grizzlies. Tim Duncan is younger somehow. Parker is getting back to mid-season form. Leonard, Green and Ginobili are energized. It  just feels a bit like the experience of San Antonio might win out against this time.

NBA Playoffs | Eastern Conf | Semi-Finals | (1) Miami vs (5) Chicago

Photo Credit: <Jumpshot.sg>

I can’t think of many people (including myself; not including Chicagoans) who thought that the Bulls would make it out of round 1 against a Brooklyn Nets team making its inaugural playoff debut. However, nobody said that they wouldn’t make it a fight. Turns out they won that fight—the first ever game 7 road win in franchise history.

There’s no denying that the Bulls are up against a fight in an elevated weight class against Miami. Fresh off of the announcement of the 4th MVP for Lebron James, putting him in a class of legends, Lebron recently stated that “he doesn’t know his own ceiling”. That's scary considering how efficient he was this past season.

We know the Bulls won’t make this an easy series for Miami. But everyone is wondering if Derrick Rose will return to the floor and give the Bulls a punchers chance at eliminating the defending champs.

Keys to Victory – Rebounding and second chance points
The Miami Heat are extremely efficient; especially Lebron James. In the first round, he averaged 24 ppg, 8 rpg and 7 apg, while shooting 63% from the field. (Who is this guy?) The Bulls will need to score a lot to keep pace with Miami regardless of their defensive prowess. To do that, they’ll need to dominate the battle of the boards to keep things competitive.

X-Factor – Tom Thibodeau
Although Erik Spoelstra is a phenomenal (and underrated) coach, Tom Thibodeau is cut from the same cloth as Doc Rivers. If there’s a coach who understands how to get the most out of his players, it’s Thibbs. Oh, and he knows defense.

Prediction – Miami Heat in 5
Without Rose, it’s improbable that a battered Chicago Bulls can take down a well-rested defending champion Miami team. No doubt Derrick Rose can change the complexity of this series with an appearance. But even with him on the court, it would be tough to fit such an integral part of the offense into the Bulls system this late in the game.

NBA Playoffs | Eastern Conf | Semi-Finals | (2) New York vs (3) Indiana

Image Credit: <knicksbricks.com>

The Knicks narrowly avoided a game 7 and potential first round disappointment against the Boston Celtics. We all knew that the Celtics would be no walk in the park, but when you take a look at the roster of both respective teams the series should have ended much sooner.

The Pacers are different, but extremely similar to the Celtics – in all the ways that make this series tough for the Knicks. They’re tough like the C’s, but they’re also young. They have trouble scoring like the C’s, but their star Paul George is emerging rather than fading. They defend like the C’s and they’re actually healthy unlike the previous Celtics opponent -- save Danny Granger (get well soon).

The Knicks will need to match the intensity that the Pacers will throw at them for all 48-minutes if they want a series win. The Pacers don’t take nights off.

Keys to Victory – The Battle in the Paint
The Knicks have often played small ball in these playoffs with Carmelo Anthony at the power forward. Against a front line of Roy Hibbert and David West, that doesn’t really allow for the Knicks to do that without suffering on the boards, and potentially putting Melo at risk of foul trouble. Navigating the series from inside out will be huge for both the Knicks and Pacers.

X-Factor –  Steve Novak
The Pacers clog up the paint, defend the pick and roll and rebound the basketball. On most occasions, their perimeter defense is sound as well. But amidst dealing with Carmelo Anthony, someone like Steve Novak can play a big role in stretching the floor and opening things up for other scorers.

Prediction – Indiana Pacers in 6
If this series were to go seven games, I might be compelled to pick New York. A game 7 in Madison Square Garden would be a lot for Indiana to overcome. But I don’t think it will go that far.

NBA Playoffs | Western Conf | Semi-Finals | (1) Oklahoma City vs (5) Memphis

Image Credit: <philly.com>

The Grizzlies are no joke. I didn’t see a team without a real "superstar" (i.e. Lebron, Kobe, Durant, Duncan) advancing against Chris Paul and the Clippers. Turns out the Grizzlies are the Denver Nuggets of defense – with this year’s Defensive Player of the Year, Marc Gasol, at the helm (debatable).

There’s no denying the Thunder are “short-staffed” without Russell Westbrook, but they’ve been able to weather the storm and find scoring and leadership from Reggie Jackson and Derek Fisher. But there’s no denying this series will be an up-hill battle for Durant and the Thunder. 

Lionel Hollins has done a fantastic job thus far in these playoffs. Scott Brooks will have to find a way to match him strategically for the Thunder to advance.

Keys to Victory – FT Shooting

In a series that will be as close-knit as this one, ever point counts. Both teams will need to savor each basket, especially those that come with the clock stopped without a defender in front of them.

X-Factor –  Serge Ibaka

My pick for defensive player of the year was Serge Ibaka. If he’s able to take Gasol’ s winning the award personal and make an all-star impact on both ends, it should significantly help OKC.

Prediction – Oklahoma City Thunder in 7

The Grizzlies are a “grind-it-out” kinda team, and this series is going to be a grind. It’s just the kind of series Kevin Durant will need to take his game to the next level.