2012-13 NBA Finals - (1) Miami vs (2) San Antonio

James and Duncan chat in '07 after the Spurs sweep the Cavs.

The Miami Heat are fresh off of a 7-game, 12-round, 13-inning series against the Indiana Pacers. Not only was it long, but grueling both mentally and physically. They're battered, but battle-tested and ready to seize the opportunity of a life-time.

The Spurs are coming off of a 9-day layoff after dismantling the Memphis Grizzlies precisely and tactically. They're well-rested, well-prepared and they've beaten Lebron James in the NBA Finals before.

But Lebron is a different player now. Not to mention he's playing alongside one of the best 2-guards to play the game in Dwyane Wade and the versatile Chris Bosh. They've been here before and they've come out victorious.

But so have the Spurs. 4 times actually; and this core group has never lost. They're all about capitalizing on moments like this. With Tim Duncan at 37 years young, it could very well be his last shot at claiming one more ring to cement him as the greatest power-forward of all-time.

Wouldn't the Spurs love to send him off that way? And wouldn't Lebron hate to never get another shot at Tim and this era of the Spurs in the finals?

Buckle up.

Keys to Victory – Turnovers
Both Miami and San Antonio are extremely efficiency clubs. They're both smart, well-coached and have great ball handlers. Miami thrives off the turnover and San Antonio doesn't give up the ball freely. That means that turnovers will be huge in impacting this series.

X-Factor – Greg Popovich
If there's one coach who can come up with a strategy to subdue the 4-time MVP, it's Greg Popovich. Lebron has one of, if not the highest basketball IQ in the league -- and he's on the floor. Popovich is the maestro that has to orchestrate a strategy to best limit what the Heat's big 3 will do. They have the personnel. Can they deliver the goods?

Prediction – Miami in 7
It's fitting that this was easily the most difficult series to pick thus far this playoffs. Miami's ability to cause turnovers and defensive havoc should give the Spurs all they can handle. The Spurs style of play is one that keeps defenses on their heels, regardless of athletic prowess.

But I believe that when a driven individual is scorned, he never forgets. And the energy, effort and will power that is the result of that memory can have significant impact on the outcome of a confrontation -- especially on a basketball court.

We're in for a good one.

NBA Playoffs | Western Conf | Conf-Finals | (1) Miami vs (3) Indiana

This series may seem underwhelming with the Pacers being what we recognize as a “small-market” team. But three of the four remaining contenders meet that criterion. For most, it’s still a foregone conclusion that Miami has this series in the bag. Last year, they were able to handle Indiana without Chris Bosh most of the way. Not to mention the Pacers are without Danny Granger. But I have an inkling that the Pacers may have something more to say about that.

Keys to Victory – Battle of the Boards
Miami’s biggest weakness is their vulnerability down low. Indiana is the best in the league at getting second chance points. They love to crash the boards and pound the ball down low with West and Hibbert. They’ll need to dominate (not just win) the battle on the glass.

X-Factor – Paul George
I don’t mean to put the entire series on one guy, especially considering how team oriented the Pacers are -- but George will need to transform from All-Star to superstar to give the Pacers a real shot at dethroning Miami this year.

Prediction – Miami in 6
I don’t think this series will be anything but amazing. The Pacers won the season series and that’s probably in the back of Miami’s mind. The Pacers are hungry, scrappy and tough. However, the Heat are hungrier, more skilled and well, just better.

NBA Playoffs | Western Conf | Conf-Finals | (2) San Antonio vs (5) Memphis

<basketballschedule.net >

The Spurs finished off a tired, yet resilient Golden State Warrior team in 6 games. The contest seems to have been just the shock they needed to wake them up after their walk-through of a series versus the Lakers. Memphis on the other hand has scratched and clawed their way to a place I can’t imagine too many people predicted they might be – except perhaps newly minted VP of Basketball Operations, John Hollinger. The Grizz are rugged, whereas the Spurs have been much more graceful in their approach. Which team will be able to impose their will?

Keys to Victory – Defending the 3-pt Line
The Grizzlies have been pretty superb at defending everything thus far in the playoffs. However, the types of teams they’ve been defending in the first two rounds are most dangerous with ball-in-hand. The Spurs are most dangerous when the ball never touches the ground -- and they’ve been hot from 3 for a while. The Grizz will need to cool them off to come away on top.

X-Factor – Mike Conley
The Big-3 for San Antonio has been Ginobili, Parker and Duncan for quite some time. It’s a tried and true formula. We know what to expect. The Grizzlies have had their big-2 truly clicking throughout this playoff run – Z-Bo and Marc Gasol. If Conley can elevate his game like he did (and beyond) against the Westbrookless-Thunder, I think I’d give them a good shot.

Prediction – San Antonio in 7
As I stated up front, the Grizzlies are going to fight. It’s what they do. My big question-mark for them is whether or not they’ll be able to score enough points to keep pace with San Antonio. The experience of Pop. The savvy of Manu. The speed of Parker. And the Tim Duncan-ness of Tim Duncan. Seems too big of an ask for the Grizz in my humble opinion.

NBA Playoffs | Western Conf | Semi-Finals | (2) San Antonio vs (6) Golden State

Image Credit: <sports.yahoo.com>

Round one for the Spurs was almost like a warm up. The Lakers didn't test their will or push them to their limit. Fortunately, the Spurs are full of veteran leadership that's been there before. With Greg Popovich at the helm, coasting through round one isn't such a bad thing.

On the other hand, the Warriors were battle tested against a Nuggets team with a chip on their shoulder. They battled through injuries to their two stars Stephen Curry and David Lee and came out stronger on the other end. I can't emphasis enough how instrumental Mark Jackson has been in leading one of the youngest teams in the league through the playoffs.

This isn't necessarily a match up of age and experience versus youth and immaturity, but it might feel like it for Game 1 in San Antonio. The lights get brighter in round 2.

Keys to Victory – Health
Tony Parker is getting his step back after suffering an ankle injury late in the season. Duncan and Ginobili are well rested. Thiago Splitter should return for game 1. For the Warriors, David Lee is likely out for the remainder of the series. Stephen Curry and Andrew Bogut are hobbled. As the playoffs goes on, the key players spend more time on the floor. The team that’s able to do that in this series should have quite the advantage.

X-Factor – Steph Curry’s Ankle
Of the four remaining playoffs series, this has been the toughest to pick. That’s because of Stephen Curry. When healthy, he’s as dangerous an offensive threat as there is. He commands extra attention. It doesn’t benefit you to go under or over the pick and roll game the Warriors are capable of playing. And he needs to be watched like a hawk off the ball. But when Steph isn’t 100%, he’s defendable. We aren’t exactly sure what he is right now.

Prediction – San Antonio in 6
This feels a little bit like a different Spurs team than the ones in previous years. They’re a different team than the one that lost to OKC after leading 2-0 or in the first round to the Grizzlies. Tim Duncan is younger somehow. Parker is getting back to mid-season form. Leonard, Green and Ginobili are energized. It  just feels a bit like the experience of San Antonio might win out against this time.